Slides from a presentation to the Academy of the Social Sciences of Australia, 2019 Federal Election Workshop, Museum of Australian Democracy, Old Parliament House, Canberra, Saturday 22 June 2019.
gerrymandering post midterms
A preview of how pro-Republican gerrymanders in several states mean that Democrats require far more than a majority of the vote to win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives.
State of the US economy Trump approval Woman candidates Gerrymandering Trump impeachment?
Wentworth CED, percentage of adult citizens reporting Judaism as religion by SA1. Produced using Leaflet. Data from 2016 Census.
Adopting a technique favored by Peter "Mumble" Brent, we compute a House candidate's "personal vote" as the difference between their 1st preference vote and their party's share of 1st preferences cast for Senate in the candidate's division. This is easily implemented given the results files provided by the AEC, as the following code demonstrates. Estimates of personal votes are produced for over 400 Coalition, Labor and Green House candidates in the 2016 election. - For Coalition incumbents in NSW in 2016, the average difference between House and Senate vote was **8.2 percentage points**; in Wentworth this difference was **9.3 percentage points**. - Turnbull's apparent personal vote in Wentworth is not especially large relative to the apparent personal votes of other NSW Coalition incumbents in 2016. - Wentworth is more "distinct" with respect to its large House and Senate votes for the Coalition.
Gallup presidential approval ratings, among partisans from the president's party, Eisenhower to Trump. Dates of polls are time-shifted to align with the corresponding time period in the Trump presidency. Trump's in-party approval ratings shown in red.
Parsing XML from ECQ to generate some tables, summaries and graphs from the Queensland 2017 election. Has anyone geo-coded the polling places?
Comparison of estimates of support for same-sex marriage in each of Australia's 150 Commonwealth electoral divisions (obtained by model-assisted post-stratification of the ABC's Vote Compass survey), with actual results from the Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey.
Results of using various post-stratification methods to de-bias the 2016 Vote Compass data, producing estimates of support for same-sex marriage in Australia, by state, and by each of Australia's 150 Commonwealth electoral divisions.
Centrebet runs a betting market on the party of the PM sworn in after the next Australia Federal election. I convert Centrebet's prices to probabilities (after factoring out Centrebet's profit margin).
slides from a lecture delivered as part of the Senate's Occasional Lecture series, Parliament of Australia