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DOES EXTERNAL MILITARY SUPPORT ESCALATE CONFLICT?
This brief investigates whether external military intervention is associated with increased conflict intensity, focusing on two African cases with contrasting patterns: The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Uganda. Using the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset (v24.1), I analyze all conflict years from 1962 to 2023 in both countries, classifying each year based on the presence of external military actors and whether the conflict escalated to war-level intensity (defined as ≥1,000 battle-related deaths).