Abstract: Program 1033, which transfers surplus military equipment to local police departments, has faced scrutiny amid ongoing concerns over police brutality and the presence of militarized police at protests. Some scholars worry that such militarization has a “chilling effect,” deterring not just rioting but also peaceful protests, calling into question the constitutionality of militarization within the context of the freedom of assembly. Still others have found that militarization actually increases the frequency of protests, suggesting that police militarization is ineffective at deterring violent protests. This study examines the impact of police militarization under Program 1033 on protest behavior, focusing on its role in deterring or inciting peaceful and violent protests. I use a time series panel regression on a state-by-state level from 2014 to 2023 to investigate this question. Even while accounting for lagged time effects and various social and economic variables, the data confirms that increased militarization has a statistically significant positive correlation with both peaceful and violent protests. This conclusion sheds light on the ineffectiveness of police militarization as it pertains to quelling violence, and it calls for policymakers to reassess the purpose and effectiveness of such policies on protecting communities.

Abortion access as it relates to socioeconomic data in the United States.