This study analyses 1,675 real NTB primary-auction records issued by the Central Bank of Nigeria between January 2002 and May 2026, combined with monthly CPI (NBS), the MPR schedule (CBN MPC), and daily FX (NFEM). It applies five analytical techniques to answer a single bidder-side question: for an upcoming NTB auction, where will the stop-out rate clear, where is the upper bound of the successful range, and will the auction be heavily demanded? The deliverable is a quantitative bidding toolkit for the DFI’s Treasury function.

Predicting Nigerian Sovereign Spread Dynamics: A DFI Treasury Perspective

This study applies five predictive-modelling techniques to a self-assembled monthly macro-financial panel covering Nigerian sovereign rate dynamics from April 2006 to April 2026.