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Analyzing True Shooting Percentage in NBA, 2016
The intertwining of sports and statistics has now affected how each game is played. Basketball is in the midst of adding more numbers to define success. In baseball, there are more and more metrics being used to calculate how efficient a player and a team can be. Baseball is by far the most set in terms of advanced metrics. Basketball, on the other hand, is starting to emerge with more and more metrics to alter how the game is played. This is especially important when a game like basketball is constantly changing; the game played today is already much different from how it was played in the 1990's. In today's era, it is all about how well the team can shoot the ball, create open shots, and rely on the three pointer.
I am confident that in today's era of basketball, the advanced metrics are driving team's successes, and that one statistic, True-Shooting Percentage (TS%), should now be used to value a player and their team over regular statistics. TS% is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws. Basketball-Reference.com, where I collected the TS% data, has True-Shooting Attempts defined as FGA + 0.44*FTA. FGA is Field Goal Attempts, and FTA is Free Throw attempts.
Advanced statistics have been quite controversial in sports. Should we rely on numbers to measure talent, or should we look more at their athleticism and passion to win a game? Such arguments have gotten scouts and sports analysts fired because the GM wants to take a more analytical route. One such team that has started to take a more analytical approach to basketball is the Golden State Warriors. They are the 2014-2015 NBA Champions, and in 2015-16, set the record for the most amount of wins in a single season with a 73-9 record.
What's notable about the Warriors is that they rely on shooting and creating open shots, something that TS% can measure better than other statistics because it weighs shot percentages and free throws. Golden State led the league with a .593 TS%. The second highest? The Oklahoma City Thunder, at .565, a huge difference. This year, among players who have taken more than 500 field goal attempts, the third best player in terms of TS% is Stephen Curry, the leader of the Warriors. Not far behind him is Klay Thompson, who averages 22 points for Golden State.
If I can prove that TS% is very significant in estimating the number of wins a team gets and how good a player can be, then it should start replacing regular statistics in basketball, and should be the biggest tool for NBA scouts and analysts in trying to find the best types of players. After proving that it is significant in estimating wins for teams, given other variables, and by examining TS% on specific teams, I can determine that it is the most valuable tool. Hence, TS% has the potential to become the way to monitor the future of basketball.