R-Progration - MCT - 21-05-21

Plot down - number of confimed case based on days - not based on illness but is artificial - its increased on Mon and Wed and low during weekends - this is because of testing process - and release of results

Using Prophet package

Prophet - package f the same condtions prevail - Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -57.884 -20.460 1.078 19.957 44.333 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 32.10159 4.28795 7.486 6.48e-12 *** actual 0.72236 0.03295 21.922 < 2e-16 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Residual standard error: 23.83 on 144 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: 0.7694, Adjusted R-squared: 0.7678 F-statistic: 480.6 on 1 and 144 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16 - r square is high - and p is very low - statistical significant

Using prophet package - forecast - 7 days moving average

7 days interval , parametric serial interval

7 days interval , parametric serial interval

7 days interval , parametric serial interval

7 days interval , parametric serial interval

7 days interval , parametric serial interval

7 days interval , parametric serial interval

7 days interval , parametric serial interval

7 days interval , parametric serial interval

7 days interval , parametric serral interval

7 days interval , parametric serral interval

7 days interval , parametric serral interval

parametric - mean 4.4 and sd =2.4

incubation period mean=4. days

mean 4.4 days/stdev= 2.4 days

non-parametric estimate R - sliding scale of 7 days

cluster distribtion - pictorial

R estimate - non_parametric

estimate R in workplace- Parametric

Epiestim - Estimating R - siding scale with a parametric interval Family_clusters - Incidence cases