This R Markdown document presents an analysis of the latent space positions of countries based on arms trade data over the years. The analysis uses the latentnet package to fit a latent space model and ggplot2 to visualize the results. It does not count the yearly effect into the model. Each year has been modelled independently from the previous one.

Processing year: 2023 Summary of Model Fit: ========================== Summary of model fit ========================== Formula: net ~ euclidean(d = 2, G = 5) <environment: 0x000001e5f38524f8> Attribute: edges Model: Bernoulli MCMC sample of size 4000, draws are 10 iterations apart, after burnin of 10000 iterations. Covariate coefficients posterior means: Estimate 2.5% 97.5% 2*min(Pr(>0),Pr(<0)) (Intercept) -1.1926 -1.4405 -0.9007 < 2.2e-16 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Overall BIC: 1547.478 Likelihood BIC: 1579.542 Latent space/clustering BIC: -32.06396 Covariate coefficients MKL: Estimate (Intercept) -2.450495

Processing year: 2022 Summary of Model Fit: ========================== Summary of model fit ========================== Formula: net ~ euclidean(d = 2, G = 5) <environment: 0x000001e5f2740a68> Attribute: edges Model: Bernoulli MCMC sample of size 4000, draws are 10 iterations apart, after burnin of 10000 iterations. Covariate coefficients posterior means: Estimate 2.5% 97.5% 2*min(Pr(>0),Pr(<0)) (Intercept) -1.4810 -1.7897 -1.2652 < 2.2e-16 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Overall BIC: 2108.091 Likelihood BIC: 2028.675 Latent space/clustering BIC: 79.4164 Covariate coefficients MKL: Estimate (Intercept) -2.80553

Processing year: 2021 Summary of Model Fit: ========================== Summary of model fit ========================== Formula: net ~ euclidean(d = 2, G = 5) <environment: 0x000001e5f26ea348> Attribute: edges Model: Bernoulli MCMC sample of size 4000, draws are 10 iterations apart, after burnin of 10000 iterations. Covariate coefficients posterior means: Estimate 2.5% 97.5% 2*min(Pr(>0),Pr(<0)) (Intercept) -1.7969 -2.0850 -1.5148 < 2.2e-16 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Overall BIC: 2432.028 Likelihood BIC: 2099.329 Latent space/clustering BIC: 332.6995 Covariate coefficients MKL: Estimate (Intercept) -3.152117

Processing year: 2020 Summary of Model Fit: ========================== Summary of model fit ========================== Formula: net ~ euclidean(d = 2, G = 5) <environment: 0x000001e5f1aee578> Attribute: edges Model: Bernoulli MCMC sample of size 4000, draws are 10 iterations apart, after burnin of 10000 iterations. Covariate coefficients posterior means: Estimate 2.5% 97.5% 2*min(Pr(>0),Pr(<0)) (Intercept) -1.8093 -2.0861 -1.5364 < 2.2e-16 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Overall BIC: 2421.597 Likelihood BIC: 2042.226 Latent space/clustering BIC: 379.3714 Covariate coefficients MKL: Estimate (Intercept) -3.123953

Processing year: 2019 Summary of Model Fit: ========================== Summary of model fit ========================== Formula: net ~ euclidean(d = 2, G = 5) <environment: 0x000001e5ef3eee60> Attribute: edges Model: Bernoulli MCMC sample of size 4000, draws are 10 iterations apart, after burnin of 10000 iterations. Covariate coefficients posterior means: Estimate 2.5% 97.5% 2*min(Pr(>0),Pr(<0)) (Intercept) -1.6960 -1.9574 -1.4203 < 2.2e-16 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Overall BIC: 2596.709 Likelihood BIC: 2188.423 Latent space/clustering BIC: 408.2861 Covariate coefficients MKL: Estimate (Intercept) -3.055339

Attribute: edges Model: Bernoulli MCMC sample of size 4000, draws are 10 iterations apart, after burnin of 10000 iterations. Covariate coefficients posterior means: Estimate 2.5% 97.5% 2*min(Pr(>0),Pr(<0)) (Intercept) -2.1053 -2.3586 -1.8677 < 2.2e-16 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Overall BIC: 2801.562 Likelihood BIC: 2508.662 Latent space/clustering BIC: 292.8994 Covariate coefficients MKL: Estimate (Intercept) -3.499201