by Zoljargal Enkhbayar

This analysis compares a self-constructed U.S. economic diffusion index—based on employment, industrial production, and consumer sentiment—with the Chicago Fed National Activity Diffusion Index (CFNAIDIFF). Using a 7-month rolling average, the diffusion index reveals economic expansion and contraction trends, while CFNAIDIFF offers a national perspective. Key insights include: Diffusion Index: Highlights significant fluctuations and recent economic weakening due to declines in key variables. CFNAIDIFF: Displays steadier trends, reflecting broader national stability. Correlation: Weak (0.157), indicating the diffusion index's sensitivity to localized shifts compared to CFNAIDIFF's national scope.