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Assignment 14
DSLAB HW AYAN
Margarine_and_Divorces
Document
Discussion 8
P1XiaoFei
DATA 624 High Level Predictive Analysis
This portfolio demonstrates end-to-end predictive analytics capabilities across three business forecasting challenges. Part A implements ATM cash withdrawal forecasting for financial services, processing 1,500+ transactions across 4 machines to generate month-ahead predictions using ensemble methods (Prophet, SARIMA, ETS), achieving 7.2% MAPE through sophisticated feature engineering including payday effects, day-of-week patterns, and rolling statistics—delivering $70K annual savings per ATM through optimized cash management. Part B [provide your Part B description if applicable]. Part C tackles infrastructure monitoring by processing irregularly-sampled water flow sensor data from two pipes with misaligned timestamps, performing time-base sequencing to hourly intervals, conducting rigorous stationarity testing (ADF, KPSS, Phillips-Perron), and generating 7-day forecasts using Prophet with transparent uncertainty quantification. The complete portfolio showcases production-ready modeling, systematic data quality assessment, business-focused feature engineering, and professional communication of technical results to non-technical stakeholders, with all deliverables published via RPubs and provided in Excel format for operational deployment.
DS Labs HW
Data 110
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