I analyzed every single match result across 30+ years of Major League Soccer — 8,709 games, 31 seasons, regular season and playoffs combined.

This document presents the **Expected Goals (xG) Calculator** developed for **CBU Men's Soccer**. The model utilizes a logistic regression framework, consistent with industry standards set by organizations such as *StatsBomb* and *Opta*. By analyzing key shot features - distance, angle, body part, and defensive pressure - this tool provides a quantitative measure of shot quality, enabling coaches to evaluate finishing efficiency and tactical positioning.

I've documented the full technical methodology, including the Poisson distribution for xPts and the weighted predictive model. Check out the full report here