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tdneumann

Terrence Neumann

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Bayesian Hyperparameter Optimization for Time Series
Hyperparameter tuning is a computationally intensive process, even when you have domain knowledge of a particular algorithm’s parameters. Bayesian Optimization is a method that uses a small amount of random grid search evaluation data to choose parameters that often far outperform those selected by intensive grid search. Below, I will outline how to use Bayesian Optimization to tune the hyperparameters in Facebook’s Prophet time-series package. We will be predicting property crime in a specific Chicago police districts at a weekly level.