ABSTRACT I wanted to determine if my favorite tarot deck is magical. To determine this, I conducted a card draw with replacement experiment to determine if the probabilities of the card draws followed the expected probabilities of random chance. I drew a single card from The Gentle Tarot deck daily for a year. The Gentle Tarot is a 79 card deck with four suits (Cups, Wands, Thunder, and Stones) and 23 major arcana cards which I considered a fifth suit for this study. I drew a total of 300 times and calculated the probability mass function for the number of suits, and the number of times each unique card was chosen for each month of the year. I found that cards were selected more often than expected when calculated for each month 39 times. I found that suits were selected more often than expected eight times when calculated for each month. Additionally I found that for all draws throughout the year, there appears to be a correlation with time of the year (linear regression, p < 0.05, r2 = 0.023). Of 378 statistical analyses,12.2% (47) were significant which is more than twice the 5% of unexpected draws expected by random chance. Based on this analysis, I must conclude that my tarot deck is magical.

Final assignment for Data Science: Foundations using R Specialization, Course 5: Reproducible Research, Developed by Johns Hopkins University.