India’s low rate of covid-19 testing relative to population is well known and has been extensively analysed. Nevertheless, it is often claimed that the number of positive cases cannot be subsantially higher than the published numbers because it would be reflected in a higher death rate. The notion is that a higher death rate would be apparent because it is difficult to hide bodies. It is argued below that a death rate of substantially over 5,000 per day would be required to be noticeable as an anamoly.

I examine some basic aspects of the Covid Data from India. My data are sourced from https://www.covid19india.org.

By modelling the spread of COVID-19, it is shown that the common discourse about "flattening the curve" grossly understates the benefits of reducing the doubling time of the infection. It is commonly argued that "flattening the curve" would reduce the peak load while the total number of infections eventually remains the same. It is shown here that in fact, under the most natural assumptions, reducing the doubling time from 3-4 days to 10 days will result in a large fraction of the population never being infected because the rate of recovery and mortality become large enough to offset the new infection rate.