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Zach Shipstead

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Predicting the People Who Override Gut-Reactions: A Logistic Regression Analysis of Working Memory Capacity and Cognitive Reflection Test Performance
The present study examined cognitive abilities as predictors of people’s tendency to correct false impressions during problem solving. This was accomplished via a machine learning logistic regression analysis in which several indicators of a person’s working memory capacity (the ability to mentally maintain and manipulate information) were used to predict whether that person would correctly answer each of three questions from the Cognitive Reflection Test (which is designed around misleading questions). Some models added previous-item-performance as a separate predictor of current-item-performance, in hopes that it would further clarify results. While it was found that aspects working memory capacity (in particular memory updating ability) can be used to predict performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test, previous-item-responding did not add predictive utility to the models. Furthermore, working memory capacity’s predictive utility may be highest on early items, when the confusing aspects of the test are most novel.